Bank of England eyes negative interest rates: what it could mean for you

As the Bank of England explores the possibility of introducing negative interest rates, we take a look at the impact such a move would have on people taking out mortgages.

What’s happening?

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is exploring how negative interest rates could be implemented.

Such a move would mean entering a ‘topsy-turvy’ world in which institutions are charged for depositing cash with the Bank instead of being paid interest on it.

The Bank has recently written to the UK’s banks asking them what steps they would need to take to be ready for the introduction of negative interest rates.

Despite this flurry of activity, the Bank has been at pains to stress that it is currently only considering negative interest rates as part of its “policy toolkit”.

It is expected to put in place other measures to support the economy before taking the drastic step of introducing negative interest rates.

Even so, markets have priced in a possible move to negative rates in the spring of next year.

What does this actually mean?

Negative interest rates mean that instead of the Bank paying commercial banks interest on the money they deposit with it, it would instead charge them money.

So, for the sake of argument, if the base rate was cut from its current level of 0.1% to -0.1%, instead of earning interest of 0.1% on their deposits, commercial banks would be charged interest of 0.1% by the Bank.

Such a move would potentially impact consumers as high street banks base the interest they pay on savings accounts and charge on certain mortgages on the Bank’s base rate.

Why is the Bank of England considering taking rates below zero?

The theory is that charging banks to deposit money encourages them to lend money to businesses and consumers, rather than hold it in reserve.

The easier and cheaper it is for businesses to borrow money, the more likely they are to do so.

The way they spend this money, such as investing in new machinery or expanding their businesses, helps to boost the economy and support employment.

What impact could it have on consumers?

While negative interest rates will have an impact on borrowing costs, it is highly unlikely that customers will be paid by their bank to borrow money.

People with fixed rate mortgages will not see any impact on their monthly repayments, as these are set for the term of the mortgage.

Those with tracker deals, which move up and down in line with the Bank’s base rate, could see a drop in their repayments but are unlikely to not be charged any interest at all.

The reason for this is that trackers charge interest at a set percentage, such as 1%, above the base rate, meaning the base rate would need to be deep into negative territory before mortgage rates followed suit.

Many tracker deals also include clauses, known as collars, stating that the interest charged will never fall below a certain level.

There has only been one case of mortgage customers receiving negative interest rates, which occurred in 2019 when Danish lender Jyske Bank offered a rate of -0.5% a year.

Even then, borrowers were not paid by the bank, with it instead reducing their outstanding mortgage debt each month by more than the amount they repaid.

While borrowers in the UK are unlikely to benefit from a similar scenario, negative interest rates are still likely to lead to lower mortgage rates.

The news is less good for savers, who are likely to earn lower interest or even no interest on the money they have deposited with banks.

But it is unlikely most consumers will have to pay to keep their savings in an account, with banks expected to limit charges on deposits to large corporations and very wealthy individuals.

What knock-on effect could it have on the housing market?

As a general rule, low borrowing costs support the housing market by making it cheaper for buyers to borrow larger sums.

With the UK already facing a mismatch between the supply of homes and demand for them, lower borrowing costs are likely to lead to higher house prices.

That said, the Bank is considering introducing negative interest rates because the coronavirus pandemic has created an extraordinary economic situation, so any boost to the housing market may be tempered by lower consumer confidence and rising unemployment.

When was the last time we had negative interest rates?

In its 326-year history, the Bank has never previously introduced negative interest rates.

But central banks in Europe and Japan have had them in place for some time.

 

We explain the government’s rating system and what it means if you’re trying to buy or sell a home this winter.

We explain the government’s rating system and what it means if you’re trying to buy or sell a home this winter.

By Nicky Burridge

October 13, 2020 Zoopla

Parts of England have been plunged back into lockdown after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced new measures to help combat the coronavirus pandemic.

The government is adopting a simplified three-tier system, under which restrictions will apply on a local basis according to the severity of Covid-19 outbreaks.

The move comes as the property market enjoys a strong rebound with solid price growth as buyer demand, which built up during lockdown, continues to work its way through the system.

Under the government’s new advice, estate agents remain open and physical property viewings are still allowed across England, with a strict bookings process in place and comprehensive advice on how to follow social distancing guidelines inside properties.

While the latest lockdown measures may make viewing properties more difficult in some areas, they are unlikely to dent the current high level of interest from potential buyers.

Richard Donnell, our head of research and insights, said: “We’ve already seen how lockdown led to people carrying out a once-in-a-lifetime re-evaluation of their homes and lifestyles, with a focus on prioritising space. And the latest restrictions will continue to support this trend – particularly for those who are more financially secure.”

Meanwhile, the stamp duty holiday is continuing to act as an incentive for buyers to complete a purchase before it comes to an end on 31 March 2021.

As a result, if you want to sell your home, the current measures are unlikely to deter potential buyers.

The government is encouraging the use of virtual viewings before visiting properties in person in order to minimise public health risks, and socially distant viewings will continue to be the norm.

What the different tiers mean:

Tier 1 – medium alert

In tier one areas all businesses and venues can continue to operate in a Covid-secure way, other than those that are currently closed by law, such as nightclubs.

Schools, universities and places of worship can remain open, and indoor sport and exercise classes can continue to take place. People must not meet in groups of more than six either indoors or outdoors.

Property viewings can continue to take place as long as anti-coronavirus measures are taken and there are no more than six people in the property at one time.

Such measures include the wearing of face coverings, regular hand washing, keeping doors and windows open for good ventilation during the viewing, and only two prospective buyers from the same household entering the property at a time.

Open house viewings are not allowed at this time.

If any member of either the household being viewed, or the household viewing, shows symptoms of Covid-19 or is self-isolating, then an in-person viewing should be delayed.

Most areas of England currently fall into this tier.

Tier 2 – high alert

Anyone living in a tier two area must follow all of the tier one rules, and also not meet with anybody outside of their household or support bubble in any indoor setting, including their home or a public place.

However, the current government advice states that in-person property viewings can still take place, with appropriate precautions. For the latest government advice in full check here.

Nevertheless, the ban on meeting people outside of your household or support bubble indoors means that some buyers or sellers may decide to suspend property viewings or only undertake them virtually.

Areas that fall into this tier currently include parts of Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, the North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.

Tier 3 – very high alert

Tier three is reserved for areas where transmission rates of Covid-19 are causing the greatest concern.

People living in these areas are not allowed to meet anybody outside of their household or support bubble in an indoor or outdoor setting, apart from open public spaces such as parks and beaches, where the rule of six will still apply.

People are also advised not to travel in and out of these areas, other than for work, education, accessing youth services or caring responsibilities.

Restrictions in this tier are likely to have the biggest impact on the property market.

Although government guidelines don’t currently state that in-person viewings are banned in tier three regions, it can be assumed that in many cases estate agents, sellers and buyers will decide against going to see properties while restrictions are in place, unless they have no other option.

That said, renewed lockdown measures may also heighten people’s desire to move if they are unhappy with their current accommodation.

In England, tier three currently only applies to Liverpool and the surrounding area, where the housing market is currently on a strong footing with price growth driven by rising demand of 3.4% recorded in the year to the end of September.

What about Scotland and Wales?

Scotland introduced a raft of short-term new anti-coronavirus measures which started on 9 October and will run until 26 October.

They include not meeting people outside of your extended household in their home or inviting them to yours, and not gathering in groups larger than six people or from more than two households outdoors.

Indoor pubs and restaurants can only be open between 6am and 6pm and they cannot service alcohol, although outdoor ones can stay open until 10pm and can serve alcohol.

The rules apply to the whole of Scotland, with some additional measures also put in place across the central belt.

The Scottish government’s guidance on property viewings emphasises a virtual-first approach. This means in-person property viewings are permitted, but it is recommended that you view properties virtually in the first instance if possible and only proceed to a physical viewing if you are interested in offering on the property.

In Wales, 17 areas are currently under local lockdown, preventing people from leaving the area without a reasonable excuse and socialising with other households indoors, although people can continue to meet outdoors.

The advice from the Welsh government is that in-person viewings can still take place, also with an emphasis on virtual viewings in the first instance and strict guidelines for conducting viewings Covid-securely.

What do the new measures mean for estate agents?

Mark Hayward, chief executive, NAEA Propertymark comments: “The new three tier Covid restriction approach has not changed the guidance for estate agents.

All agencies should strictly adhere to all guidance previously issued by MHCLG and NAEA Propertymark, unless instructed otherwise in future.”

 

Nicky Burridge

Zoopla